Model | Deviance | AIC | BIC | df | ΔΧ² | p | McFadden R² | Nagelkerke R² | Tjur R² | Cox & Snell R² | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M₀ | 136.663 | 138.663 | 141.268 | 99 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||||||||||||
M₁ | 105.770 | 113.770 | 124.191 | 96 | 30.892 | < .001 | 0.226 | 0.357 | 0.274 | 0.266 | |||||||||||
M₂ | 87.971 | 103.971 | 124.813 | 92 | 17.799 | 0.001 | 0.356 | 0.517 | 0.414 | 0.385 | |||||||||||
Note. M₁ includes safety, risk_perception, gender | |||||||||||||||||||||
Note. M₂ includes safety, risk_perception, gender, previous, experience, self_control |
The Model Summary table above provides information about the model after the variables risk_perception
, safety
and gender
have been added. The Deviance has dropped to 105.77, which is a change of 30.89 (i.e., =30.89 ). Thus, the Deviance value tells us about the model as a whole, whereas the
tells us how the model has improved relative to the previous model. The change in the amount of information explained by the model is significant (
(3) = 30.89, p < .001) and so using perceived risk, relationship safety and gender as predictors significantly improves our ability to predict condom use, compared to predictions based solely on the base rate of condom use.
The output for Model 2 shows what happens to the model when our new predictors are added (previous use, self-control and sexual experience). So, we begin with the model that we had in block 1 and we then add previous
, self_control
and experience
to it. The effect of adding these predictors to the model is to reduce the Deviance to 87.97, which is a reduction of 17.80 compared to the previous model (i.e., = 17.8). This additional improvement of block 2 is significant (
(4) = 17.80, p = .001), which tells us that including these three new predictors in the model has significantly improved our ability to predict condom use.
Wald Test
|
95% Confidence interval
(odds ratio scale) |
||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | Estimate | Standard Error | Odds Ratio | z | Wald Statistic | df | p | Lower bound | Upper bound | ||||||||||||
M₀ | (Intercept) | -0.282 | 0.202 | 0.754 | -1.395 | 1.947 | 1 | 0.163 | 0.508 | 1.121 | |||||||||||
M₁ | (Intercept) | -2.476 | 0.752 | 0.084 | -3.294 | 10.851 | 1 | < .001 | 0.019 | 0.367 | |||||||||||
safety | -0.464 | 0.218 | 0.629 | -2.131 | 4.541 | 1 | 0.033 | 0.410 | 0.963 | ||||||||||||
risk_perception | 0.940 | 0.223 | 2.560 | 4.217 | 17.780 | 1 | < .001 | 1.654 | 3.964 | ||||||||||||
gender (Female) | 0.317 | 0.496 | 1.373 | 0.638 | 0.407 | 1 | 0.523 | 0.519 | 3.631 | ||||||||||||
M₂ | (Intercept) | -4.960 | 1.146 | 0.007 | -4.326 | 18.714 | 1 | < .001 | 0.001 | 0.066 | |||||||||||
safety | -0.482 | 0.236 | 0.617 | -2.044 | 4.178 | 1 | 0.041 | 0.389 | 0.980 | ||||||||||||
risk_perception | 0.949 | 0.237 | 2.583 | 4.005 | 16.041 | 1 | < .001 | 1.624 | 4.111 | ||||||||||||
gender (Female) | 0.003 | 0.573 | 1.003 | 0.005 | 2.150×10-5 | 1 | 0.996 | 0.326 | 3.081 | ||||||||||||
previous (Condom used) | 1.087 | 0.552 | 2.966 | 1.970 | 3.880 | 1 | 0.049 | 1.005 | 8.750 | ||||||||||||
previous (First Time with partner) | -0.017 | 1.400 | 0.984 | -0.012 | 1.409×10-4 | 1 | 0.991 | 0.063 | 15.289 | ||||||||||||
experience | 0.180 | 0.112 | 1.198 | 1.617 | 2.614 | 1 | 0.106 | 0.962 | 1.491 | ||||||||||||
self_control | 0.348 | 0.127 | 1.416 | 2.741 | 7.511 | 1 | 0.006 | 1.104 | 1.815 | ||||||||||||
Note. use level 'Condom Used' coded as class 1. |
The Coefficients table above tells us the parameters of both models.
The significance values of the Wald statistics for each predictor indicate that both perceived risk (Wald = 17.78, p < .001) and relationship safety (Wald = 4.54, p = .033) significantly predict condom use. Gender, however, does not (Wald = 0.41, p = .523).
The significance values of the Wald statistics for each predictor indicate that both perceived risk (Wald = 16.04, p < .001) and relationship safety (Wald = 4.17, p = .041) still significantly predict condom use and, as in Model 1, gender does not (Wald = 0.00, p = .996). Previous use has been split into two components (according to whatever level is highest in the Variable Settings for previous
). Looking at the output, we can see that previous(Condom used)
and previous(First Time with partner)
are featured, which means that both of these categories are being compared to No Condom
(which is in indeed the top category in the Variable Settings). Based on the regression results, we can tell that (1) using a condom on the previous occasion does predict use on the current occasion (Wald = 3.88, p = .049); and (2) there is no significant difference between not using a condom on the previous occasion and this being the first time (Wald = 0.00, p = .991). Of the other new predictors we find that self-control predicts condom use (Wald = 7.51, p = .006) but sexual experience does not (Wald = 2.61, p = .106).
previous(Condom used)
(Odds Ratio = 2.97[1.01, 8.75) indicates that if the value of previous usage goes up by 1 (i.e., changes from not having used one to having used one), then the odds of using a condom also increase. If this is one of the 95% of samples for which the confidence interval contains the population value then the value of the odds ratio in the population lies somewhere between 1.01 and 8.75. In other words it is a positive relationship: previous use predicts future use. For previous(First Time with partner)
the odds ratio (Odds Ratio = 0.98 [0.06, 15.29) indicates that if the value of previous usage goes changes from not having used one to this being the first time with this partner), then the odds of using a condom do not change (because the value is very nearly equal to 1). If this is one of the 95% of samples for which the confidence interval contains the population value then the value of the odds ratio in the population lies somewhere between 0.06 and 15.29 and because this interval contains 1 it means that the population relationship could be either positive or negative (and very wide ranging).Tolerance | VIF | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
safety | 0.561 | 1.784 | |||
risk_perception | 0.557 | 1.795 | |||
gender | 0.855 | 1.170 | |||
previous | 0.923 | 1.083 | |||
experience | 0.893 | 1.120 | |||
self_control | 0.943 | 1.061 | |||
The Multicollinearity Diagnostics table above shows that the tolerance values for all variables are close to 1 and VIF values are much less than 10, which suggests no collinearity issues.
Case Number | Std. Residual | use | Predicted Value | Residual | Cook's Distance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41 | -2.158 | Unprotected | 0.891 | -9.151 | 0.055 | ||||||
53 | -2.281 | Unprotected | 0.916 | -11.852 | 0.074 | ||||||
58 | 2.041 | Condom Used | 0.142 | 7.029 | 0.055 | ||||||
83 | 2.052 | Condom Used | 0.150 | 6.666 | 0.086 | ||||||
The Influential Cases table lists cases with standardized residuals greater than 2. In a sample of 100, we would expect around 5–10% of cases to have standardized residuals with absolute values greater than this value. For these data we have only four cases (out of 100) and only one of these has an absolute value greater than 3. Therefore, we can be fairly sure that there are no outliers (the number of cases with large standardized residuals is consistent with what we would expect).
If we want to know how well the final model predicts to observed data, we can look at the Confusion Matrix (the option can be found in the Statistics tab). The confusion table tells us that the model is now correctly classifying 78% of cases.
Predicted | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | Unprotected | Condom Used | % Correct | ||||
Unprotected | 47 | 10 | 82.456 | ||||
Condom Used | 12 | 31 | 72.093 | ||||
Overall % Correct | 78.000 | ||||||
Note. The cut-off value is set to 0.5 |